Political Snapshots of Young Voters

A student wondered the other day whether younger voters were more likely than older ones to be liberals and Democrats.  So I decided to check it out. According to the General Social Survey (GSS), there's been a notable shift from 1980 to 2010 among both under and over 30 people--from "Not Strong Democrat" to "Strong Democrat."  But also note that in both years the under 30 crowd is less polarized than the older voters, and is more likely to be independent.  In other words, age, at least at this level of generality, is not a very strong predictor of party affiliation.

18-30 1980 2010 Difference from over 30 population Strong Democrat 5.8 12.6 -7.0 -4.6 Not Strong Democrat 26.4 20.6 0.9 3.4 Independent, Near Democrat 16.0 16.0 2.8 2.9 Independent, Near Republican 10.9 10.0 2.5 0.8 Not Strong Republican 14.7 13.9 -0.2 -0.3 Strong Republican 3.3 4.2 -4.5 -4.3 Independent 22.3 21.6 5.5 4.3 Other Party 0.5 1.5 -0.1 0.8 over 30 1980 2010 Strong Democrat 12.8 17.2 Not Strong Democrat 25.5 17.2 Independent, Near Democrat 13.2 13.1 Independent, Near Republican 8.4 9.2 Not Strong Republican 14.9 14.2 Strong Republican 7.8 8.5 Independent 16.8 17.3 Other Party 0.6 0.7

We find a similar pattern in people's ideological stances.  There's more polarization in 2010 in comparison to 1980, and in 2010 the 18-30 year-olds are slightly more likely to identify as moderate, liberal, or extremely liberal.  I don't think there's enough difference here in ideological identification to say that "millennials" are significantly different from their elders.

18-30	1980	2010		Difference from over 30 population
Extremely Liberal	2.3	4.8		-0.3	1.3
Liberal	12.9	15.7		6.3	3.7
Slightly Liberal	23.9	10.6		13.1	-1.0
Moderate	35.0	40.6		-7.0	4.9
Slightly Conservative	14.2	11.4		-4.9	-2.1
Conservative	9.1	11.4		-4.5	-5.1
Extremely Conservative	1.3	2.7		-2.4	-3.1
Don't Know	1.3	2.4		-0.3	-0.6
over 30	1980	2010
Extremely Liberal	2.6	3.5
Liberal	6.6	12.0
Slightly Liberal	10.8	11.6
Moderate	42.0	35.7
Slightly Conservative	19.1	13.5
Conservative	13.6	16.5
Extremely Conservative	3.7	4.3
Don't Know	1.6	3.0

But we should keep in mind that what it means to be "liberal" or "conservative" may shift over time.  For example, again based on GSS data, a third of 18-30 year-olds in 1980 identifying as "liberal" or "extremely liberal" also thought homosexuality was "always wrong."  In 2010 that figure was down to about a fifth.  The acceptance of homosexuality has also grown among conservative and extremely conservative 18-30 year-olds, and in both ideological camps in the over 30 crowd.  But note, too, that the gaps between the ideological camps have grown wider, particularly among those over 30.  It may well be that younger voters have the reputation of being more liberal because homosexuality is not an issue for so many of them.  But growing acceptance of homosexuality among 18-30 year-olds has not meant they're migrating to the Democratic party, nor are they repositioning their ideological identities to any great extent.

18-30 1980 Homosexual relations are:	Liberal and Extremely Liberal	Conservative and Extremely Conservative
Always Wrong	33	68
Not Wrong At All	48	19
18-30 2010 Homosexual relations are:	Liberal and Extremely Liberal	Conservative and Extremely Conservative
Always Wrong	18	55
Not Wrong At All	69	32
over 30 1980 Homosexual relations are:	Liberal and Extremely Liberal	Conservative and Extremely Conservative
Always Wrong	56	81
Not Wrong At All	25	9
over 30 2010 Homosexual relations are:	Liberal and Extremely Liberal	Conservative and Extremely Conservative
Always Wrong	25	72
Not Wrong At All	66	18