Thursday, March 8, 2012

Political Snapshots of Young Voters


A student wondered the other day whether younger voters were more likely than older ones to be liberals and Democrats.  So I decided to check it out. According to the General Social Survey (GSS), there's been a notable shift from 1980 to 2010 among both under and over 30 people--from "Not Strong Democrat" to "Strong Democrat."  But also note that in both years the under 30 crowd is less polarized than the older voters, and is more likely to be independent.  In other words, age, at least at this level of generality, is not a very strong predictor of party affiliation.

18-30
1980
2010
Difference from over 30 population
Strong Democrat
5.8
12.6
-7.0
-4.6
Not Strong Democrat
26.4
20.6
0.9
3.4
Independent, Near Democrat
16.0
16.0
2.8
2.9
Independent, Near Republican
10.9
10.0
2.5
0.8
Not Strong Republican
14.7
13.9
-0.2
-0.3
Strong Republican
3.3
4.2
-4.5
-4.3





Independent
22.3
21.6
5.5
4.3
Other Party
0.5
1.5
-0.1
0.8







over 30
1980
2010
Strong Democrat
12.8
17.2
Not Strong Democrat
25.5
17.2
Independent, Near Democrat
13.2
13.1
Independent, Near Republican
8.4
9.2
Not Strong Republican
14.9
14.2
Strong Republican
7.8
8.5



Independent
16.8
17.3
Other Party
0.6
0.7





We find a similar pattern in people's ideological stances.  There's more polarization in 2010 in comparison to 1980, and in 2010 the 18-30 year-olds are slightly more likely to identify as moderate, liberal, or extremely liberal.  I don't think there's enough difference here in ideological identification to say that "millennials" are significantly different from their elders.

18-30
1980
2010
Difference from over 30 population
Extremely Liberal
2.3
4.8
-0.3
1.3
Liberal
12.9
15.7
6.3
3.7
Slightly Liberal
23.9
10.6
13.1
-1.0
Moderate
35.0
40.6
-7.0
4.9
Slightly Conservative
14.2
11.4
-4.9
-2.1
Conservative
9.1
11.4
-4.5
-5.1
Extremely Conservative
1.3
2.7
-2.4
-3.1
Don't Know
1.3
2.4
-0.3
-0.6



over 30
1980
2010
Extremely Liberal
2.6
3.5
Liberal
6.6
12.0
Slightly Liberal
10.8
11.6
Moderate
42.0
35.7
Slightly Conservative
19.1
13.5
Conservative
13.6
16.5
Extremely Conservative
3.7
4.3
Don't Know
1.6
3.0

But we should keep in mind that what it means to be "liberal" or "conservative" may shift over time.  For example, again based on GSS data, a third of 18-30 year-olds in 1980 identifying as "liberal" or "extremely liberal" also thought homosexuality was "always wrong."  In 2010 that figure was down to about a fifth.  The acceptance of homosexuality has also grown among conservative and extremely conservative 18-30 year-olds, and in both ideological camps in the over 30 crowd.  But note, too, that the gaps between the ideological camps have grown wider, particularly among those over 30.  It may well be that younger voters have the reputation of being more liberal because homosexuality is not an issue for so many of them.  But growing acceptance of homosexuality among 18-30 year-olds has not meant they're migrating to the Democratic party, nor are they repositioning their ideological identities to any great extent.

18-30 1980
Homosexual relations are:
Liberal and
Extremely Liberal
Conservative and
Extremely Conservative
Always Wrong
33
68
Not Wrong At All
48
19



18-30 2010
Homosexual relations are:
Liberal and
Extremely Liberal
Conservative and
Extremely Conservative
Always Wrong
18
55
Not Wrong At All
69
32



over 30 1980
Homosexual relations are:
Liberal and
Extremely Liberal
Conservative and
Extremely Conservative
Always Wrong
56
81
Not Wrong At All
25
9



over 30 2010
Homosexual relations are:
Liberal and
Extremely Liberal
Conservative and
Extremely Conservative
Always Wrong
25
72
Not Wrong At All
66
18

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