A student wondered the other day whether younger voters were more likely than older ones to be liberals and Democrats. So I decided to check it out. According to the General Social Survey (GSS), there's been a notable shift from 1980 to 2010 among both under and over 30 people--from "Not Strong Democrat" to "Strong Democrat." But also note that in both years the under 30 crowd is less polarized than the older voters, and is more likely to be independent. In other words, age, at least at this level of generality, is not a very strong predictor of party affiliation.
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We find a similar pattern in people's ideological stances. There's more polarization in 2010 in comparison to 1980, and in 2010 the 18-30 year-olds are slightly more likely to identify as moderate, liberal, or extremely liberal. I don't think there's enough difference here in ideological identification to say that "millennials" are significantly different from their elders.
18-30
|
1980
|
2010
|
Difference from over 30 population
| ||
Extremely Liberal
|
2.3
|
4.8
|
-0.3
|
1.3
| |
Liberal
|
12.9
|
15.7
|
6.3
|
3.7
| |
Slightly Liberal
|
23.9
|
10.6
|
13.1
|
-1.0
| |
Moderate
|
35.0
|
40.6
|
-7.0
|
4.9
| |
Slightly Conservative
|
14.2
|
11.4
|
-4.9
|
-2.1
| |
Conservative
|
9.1
|
11.4
|
-4.5
|
-5.1
| |
Extremely Conservative
|
1.3
|
2.7
|
-2.4
|
-3.1
| |
Don't Know
|
1.3
|
2.4
|
-0.3
|
-0.6
| |
over 30
|
1980
|
2010
| |||
Extremely Liberal
|
2.6
|
3.5
| |||
Liberal
|
6.6
|
12.0
| |||
Slightly Liberal
|
10.8
|
11.6
| |||
Moderate
|
42.0
|
35.7
| |||
Slightly Conservative
|
19.1
|
13.5
| |||
Conservative
|
13.6
|
16.5
| |||
Extremely Conservative
|
3.7
|
4.3
| |||
Don't Know
|
1.6
|
3.0
| |||
But we should keep in mind that what it means to be "liberal" or "conservative" may shift over time. For example, again based on GSS data, a third of 18-30 year-olds in 1980 identifying as "liberal" or "extremely liberal" also thought homosexuality was "always wrong." In 2010 that figure was down to about a fifth. The acceptance of homosexuality has also grown among conservative and extremely conservative 18-30 year-olds, and in both ideological camps in the over 30 crowd. But note, too, that the gaps between the ideological camps have grown wider, particularly among those over 30. It may well be that younger voters have the reputation of being more liberal because homosexuality is not an issue for so many of them. But growing acceptance of homosexuality among 18-30 year-olds has not meant they're migrating to the Democratic party, nor are they repositioning their ideological identities to any great extent.
18-30
1980
Homosexual
relations are:
|
Liberal
and
Extremely
Liberal
|
Conservative
and
Extremely
Conservative
|
Always
Wrong
|
33
|
68
|
Not
Wrong At All
|
48
|
19
|
18-30
2010
Homosexual
relations are:
|
Liberal
and
Extremely
Liberal
|
Conservative
and
Extremely
Conservative
|
Always
Wrong
|
18
|
55
|
Not
Wrong At All
|
69
|
32
|
over 30 1980
Homosexual
relations are:
|
Liberal
and
Extremely
Liberal
|
Conservative
and
Extremely
Conservative
|
Always
Wrong
|
56
|
81
|
Not
Wrong At All
|
25
|
9
|
over 30
2010
Homosexual
relations are:
|
Liberal
and
Extremely
Liberal
|
Conservative
and
Extremely
Conservative
|
Always
Wrong
|
25
|
72
|
Not
Wrong At All
|
66
|
18
|
